Rwanda Meteorology Agency (METEO RWANDA) hereby releases the seasonal rainfall forecast for September to December 2015.
Regional and international Climate scientists involved in prediction of seasonal rainfall converged in KENYA, Nairobi at the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC),from 17 -22 August to analyze and deliberate on the historical data of rainfall and temperature from across the ten countries (Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda). Several world research centers were represented and after deliberations the scientists came up with a consensus forecast for the IGAD region and the affiliated countries of Rwanda, Tanzania and Burundi.
For Rwanda we used historical rainfall and temperature data for up to 45 years from different stations across the country with sea surface temperatures from global oceans (Indian, Pacific and the Atlantic).
From the Statistical and Dynamical analysis done for each zone, the seasonal forecast is as follows:
The Eastern Province (Ngoma, Gatsibo, Bugesera, Kirehe, Rwamagana, Kayonza and Nyagatare), Kigali City (Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Gasabo) are expected to have a near normal rainfall season with tendency to slight above normal in few places.
The Western Province (Rusizi, Nyamasheke, Karongi, Rubavu, Nyabihu and Ngororero), Southern Province (Kamonyi, Muhanga, Ruhango, Nyanza, Huye, Gisagara, Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru) and Northern Province (Rulindo, Musanze, Bulera, Gicumbi and Gakenke) are expected to have normal to above normal rainfall with tendency to above normal in many places.
The Rainfall distribution is divided into two categories which are: above normal and normal to slight above rainfall according to the cumulative range of rainfall amounts during September to December rainfall seasons:
Above Normal= >430 mm;
Near Normal= 370-430 mm.
THE EXPECTED IMPACTS IN VARIOUS SECTORS
The normal to above normal rainfall expected during the September to December rainfall season may cause floods and other related disasters such as landslides. Therefore relevant authorities responsible for infrastructures and other vulnerable institutions should put in place both preventive and mitigate strategies to minimize loss of life and property.
The favorable rainfall performance during the season may result into:
Floods and landslides over some parts of the country.
Reduced agricultural activities in some areas due to landslides, floods and water logging in some area. Damage to Infrastructure in some parts of the country.
Increased for diseases due to water borne diseases Weather/Climate.
N.B This outlook is supplemented by daily updates of different timescales (24-hours, 5-days and 10-days forecasts and regular monthly updates) and advisories issued by Rwanda Meteorology Agency.
Done on 2nd September, 2015.